The Odds are Not Good








Our new friend the abuela crossed over to the US early this morning. Yesterday her younger son and his wife and child were admitted separately and are now in the clutches of the customs system. Now it’s her turn. Soon, her oldest son and his wife and child will be taken across. We won’t hear from them after they go, so we can only hope things work out well for them.

But the odds are not good. What happens next is that they get taken in custody to Tucson where they apply for asylum. Then they are brought back to Mexico where they must wait until their hearing for asylum. They aren’t brought back to Agua Prieta, though. Likely they will all be dropped off in Nogales, MX and hopefully all of the family will get back together there in the near future. But, then again, they may not all be taken there. We just don’t know.

This Trump policy of putting people back into harm’s way in Mexico after they have applied for asylum is called the Migrant Protection Program, aka the Remain in Mexico policy. It’s not according to what international law says should happen and is very dangerous for the migrants, who must struggle to find shelter and safety. Just as they were in danger while waiting to get across to apply for asylum in the first place, now they are in danger again. For the abuela and her family, it will be even greater danger because the support system in larger cities like Nogales, Juarez, and Tijuana is not as good as what has evolved in Agua Prieta, and also because the sheer crowd of migrants makes for increased disorder, crime, and vulnerability. These cities are “super-saturated” with migrants, as Jack puts it. And the wait for the hearing can take many months.

On top of this, being in Mexico makes it very difficult to get and work with an attorney who can help with the court hearing. That’s assuming you have the resources to afford an attorney. In court, the applicant has to provide hard evidence of persecution, such as death certificates of relatives or photographs. Verbal testimony counts for little. Sexual abuse or threats count not at all. Only 15% of asylum applications are successful (1% for Mexicans). The other 85% are deported from the US.

And so those of us on the accompaniment team can share in the joy of family members when one of their own finally gets across the border to make the claim. But we also harbor this deeper sense of foreboding and sadness that the future is not likely to live up to their hopes. But those migrating are also aware of the obstacles yet to come. And yet, they hope and continue to move forward. For them, backward is not an option.


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